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Z-man: Murray is obvious the better all-around player and I would love to have him. But you would rephrase the question as: would you rather have Brunson and the player you can get with the assets you would have expended that you used to acquire Murray, or just Murray without those assets?
Can we get both? Sign Brunson as a FA and then get Murray? That would be quite an upgrade.
Wall to the Clippers. If the team comes back healthy and there’s anything left in that guy’s tank, that could be an interesting team. Although it feels doomed.
Alan is in the midst of a twitter discussion about team-building strategy — and the trouble is, the only real ways to build success are:
1) straight out tanking, which requires even more tankage now with the new lottery odds (Hinkie/Presti plan)
2) pie-in-the-sky moonshots hoping that Max Player X will decide he wants to be traded to your team (Rose plan)
3) Finding dumb/desperate teams to make crazy trades with you (Pelicans/Lakers/Bucks, OKC/Clippers) – bear in mind this strategy only works if you are fortunate enough to luck into really good players in the draft but bad enough that you need to blow it up by trading said players in said crazy trades) — and then you have to luck into good lottery luck + years in which those picks coincide with good players (ie. Dallas gets/trades for #3 pick and gets Luka, we get #3 pick and get RJ Barrett).
4) Unearthing all-NBA players in the late lottery (Donovan, Giannis) or 20s (Gobert) or 40s (Jokic) — not really a reliable way of doing business but sure if it works for you then great.
By far the strategy that is most likely to work is straight-out tanking — if done by a functional organization who has a plan (Philly, ongoing OKC, Detroit) as opposed to incompetent organizations that stink and so can’t make good use of resources. But this is just terrible for the league. OKC has been able to hide from scrutiny because of Presti’s prestige and the fact they’re in OKC. You have to imagine it would be far less palatable for the league if the Knicks were to do it.
This brings me back to my lottery proposal from years ago — you have to reward teams for trying to win. Brief recap: From Game 1 to Game X – losses get you lottery “points” From Game X to Game 82 – wins get you lottery “points” Game X is determined randomly after the season is over so teams cannot game it (and probably should be at least game 50 or something so that truly terrible teams don’t get stuck in hell).
This would immediately get rid of late-season tanking as losing games at the end of the year doesn’t obviously help you.
If you set X to be at least greater than a certain game number, then the teams that are truly terrible will still get a pretty good pick – it just can’t be predicted.
Teams that play pedal to the metal to the end probably will get rewarded for those wins.
The revelation of “X” could be a TV event in and of itself.
Luck is still involved, but at least teams are incentivized to win rather than sit players like SGA for multiple seasons.
I still can’t find a reason why this is a bad proposal other than that it’s “complicated”.
A couple of things leftover from yesterday’s thread.
1. I think the FO realizes they blew it on Reddish. (I can’t remember if I read this somewhere or if it just came up in conversation with an NBA reporter, but there is a belief that the team didn’t do its homework on Reddish the person rather than Reddish the alleged star talent, which is in and of itself not confidence-inspiring.) And now they’re trying to avoid the sunk cost fallacy. The Incineration Trade was dumb, flipping that pick for a guy with Cam’s resume was dumber, so just move on and get some cap space out of the next sucker who believes there is still untapped ability there.
2. If we are successful in trading Burks into Boston’s trade exception (or somewhere else) and thus open up enough space to offer Brunson (per Macri’s numbers) $113.5 million over 4 years, what kind of sign-and-trade could we even pull off with Dallas at that point? Just Brunson for a trade exception? Brunson and Cam for a pick of some kind? I had assumed Burks and/or Noel would be going to Dallas as part of said deal (assuming Dallas and Noel are both over the bad blood there).
Fred Katz has a great piece on how complicated RJ’s extension could be. Katz acknowledges how inefficient RJ has been so far, while also pointing out that he’s improved parts of his game every year, has one of the league’s great work ethics, etc. A couple of notable excerpts, but I highly recommend the whole piece, because there’s a lot of nuance:
The Athletic conducted a poll, asking 16 officials in NBA front offices what they would deem a fair number for Barrett in an extension this summer or fall. Responses ranged from $15 million to $30 million a year. No one advocated for the Knicks to give him the max. Exactly half of the responses were a nice, clean four years, $100 million, making it by far the most common proposal from the polled executives.
The Knicks could make a proposal below the max, then tell him if he plays like a max player in 2022-23, they’ll give him the contract he wants in free agency. His restricted status means that the Knicks can match any offer he receives elsewhere to bring him back for the same price. If Barrett were a robot, that strategy might be best, but real life doesn’t always work so mechanically.
Not too long ago, the Utah Jazz let at-the-time restricted free agent Gordon Hayward sign a max offer sheet with the Hornets, then matched it to bring him back. Four years later, when the aforementioned contract expired, Utah not showing enough faith in Hayward the first time around was one of the reasons cited for the All-Star forward signing with the Celtics. A similar situation occurred with Kevin Love during negotiations for his rookie-scale extension in 2011. The Timberwolves gave Love the max but offered only four years, not five. Today, a comparable dynamic is playing out with the Suns and Deandre Ayton after Phoenix elected not to extend the former No. 1 pick back in the fall…
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